A political commentary

Well, I finally decided to sit down and write about the politics of this adopted country of mine. As some of you may have guessed, the past four or five months have been a very interesting time for Thailand. It has been fascinating to be here and be a part of it all. This is a rather long entry and it covers many different aspects of the current political situation and I hope it is of some interest to some of you.

The current government took office on September 19, 2006 after a peaceful military coup. My first reaction to the coup was one of shock and fear. My western educated mind has always associated the word ‘coup’ with violence and bloodshed. History has shown that association to not be entirely untrue. However, Thailand’s 19^th coup d’etat was peaceful. No blood was split – people actually responded with an unexpectedly positive attitude – and thousands ventured into the streets to offer food and treats to the soldiers and take pictures with the tanks. It was a public holiday and a time to celebrate the start of a new era of Thai politics. Pledges were made to reinstitute a democratic government rid of the corruption and nepotism that plagued the former government and create a government based on morals and unity. Thailand was going to strive to achieve these goals, despite the fact that at the moment civil liberties were restricted and marshal law enacted. The situation in Thailand had degenerated to such a point that a military coup and governance under a military regime was preferred to the government of a democratically elected government gone astray. And so it was with this mentality that we began this adventure. I myself jumped on the bandwagon and was positive about the coup. I saw it as a solution to the increasingly divisive political climate and while not ideal, was a seemingly uniquely Thai way of dealing with political problems. The King endorsed the coup and off we went.

The next few months saw few changes. September and October passed without much activity. The government proceeded to establish itself and a new cabinet was created. The man chosen to lead the nation into this new period of history was a former general and member of the King's inner cabinet of advisors, General Surayud Chulanont. He is a man widely regarded as a highly moral and incorruptible leader completely dedicated to King and Country – the exact criteria sought by the general public. He assumed the position reluctantly and began governing the country. From the beginning, Prime Minister Surayud was stuck between a rock and a hard place and his appointment began the steady stream of criticism from democracy advocates and critics of the coup. The appointment of a former general to the head of an interim government created after a military coup was not exactly the ideal picture many democracy leaders had in mind. Visions of past coups and military rule slowly re-entered the public consciousness and the interim government quickly began asserting at every opportunity that they intend to return power to the people at the earliest possible moment. They began on the defensive and have remained there ever since. One of the many tasks that the interim government faced was establishing the legitimacy of the coup and bringing the former leaders to trial by completely legal means. This is exactly what they needed to do and it is what that have subsequently done. In contrast to past coups, assets were not immediately seized and political leaders were not imprisoned. The government set up several panels to look into the shadowy places and uncover what they could legally before any action was taken. In any government, this process takes time but in Thailand where the bureaucratic process is at its finest and corruption rampant, it takes forever. Several incidents have been investigated and preliminary findings released, but no legal action has been taken and it is still uncertain whether or not any substantial wrong doing has been uncovered. Moreover, the interim government must take certain steps to ensure that the supporters of the former government are not alienated and pushed to the outskirts. Many supporters of the former government still hold significant influence and the rural supporters of the former government still present a significant faction of the populace. This has forced the government to tread lightly and take a seemingly soft-handed approach in dealing with the wrongdoings of the previous government. But any attempt on their part to strike a hard-line approach immediately would draw criticism of them using the military for there own gains. And there it is…the rock and the hard place. If that were the end of it, it would make for an interesting story, but it doesn’t end there.

The Thai people, immediately following the coup, desired a strong moral leader to govern the country and that is what they got. Recently, it’s become increasingly apparent that one needs more than morals to governing a country. While I agree that a moral leader is essential to creating a stable and productive democratic government, it’s not the only thing. Prime Minister Surayud got by during the first few months of his term on that and that alone but as his government has had to actually govern, it has been obvious recently that they are less than qualified to run the country. There have been numerous incidents and I’ll focus on two or three to illustrate my point. Bangkok rang in the New Year in fear after nine bombings rocked the city on New Years Eve. The bombs exploded around 6 pm and midnight at different places around the city and pushed the city into a state of fear. The next few days saw dozen of false alarms as people thought the spotted bombs around the city and numerous false alarms. The bombers succeeded in creating a state of fear in Bangkok and destabilizing the government. Soon after the bombings, people were speculating as to the identity of the bombers. Was is the insurgents in the South? Had they mobilized and brought the violence from the South into the heart of the capital or was it the work of anti-coup leaders who lost power after the coup? Maybe it was the coup makers themselves seeking to find a reason to more deeply entrench themselves? Speculation was rampant and shortly after the bombings the government addressed the nation. What one expected the government to say was express condolences for those impacted by the bombings and vow to determine who is responsible for these attacks and reassure the public that they are safe and then go about doing just that. But the government jumped into the ring and started speculating themselves. Without any evidence to support their claims, they alluded to the involvement of the former prime minister and his supporters (who I believe was responsible…but then again, I’m not the government and am allowed to publicly speculate). Mistake #1. As a government that was installed after a military coup, one would think that they would tread as lightly in this situation as they have in others. It’s imperative that the impartiality of the government not be questioned and that civil liberties be as respected as possible to demonstrate a true desire to establish a democratic government. I understand a government reacting to a display of violence such as this, but they must act in a measured way not in retaliation for prior misgivings. The investigations drew on and speculation grew and people began wondering if the bombers would ever be identified at all and the political charade continued as several high ranking politicians engaged in a verbal spat through the media. A huge miscalculation. Several suspects are in custody now after a large raid several days ago and while charges have yet to be pressed, the initial reaction by the government leads people to wonder if the suspects in custody are scapegoats and designed to justify the government’s initial comments. My final verdict is still out.

The second incident that I’ll write about is more related to the governance of the country. Thailand was rocked by the SE Asia financial crisis in the late 1990’s and that resulted in a deeply ingrained fear of foreign currency speculation (part of the cause of the crisis). Over that past few years, Thailand has recovered and the economy has been very strong. Recently, the baht (the Thai currency) has increased in value against the dollar as the dollar dropped worldwide. This led many in Thailand to start worrying about currency speculation and a declining export market. The government responded to these concerns with a capital control which sharply inhibited foreign investment and made Thailand much less attractive to foreign investors. Overnight the Thai stock market dropped 15% and saw losses of more than 500 billion baht. The next morning, in response to the events of the previous day, the government eased the capital controls and adjusted the policy to increase Thailand’s attractiveness, yet maintained the controls in several areas. They admitted making a mistake, but declined to say that the action was irresponsible since it did stabilize the baht against the dollar. Further adjustments were made, but this action has increasingly stood out as one which characterizes the current government – a noble goal achieved through foolish means. This action was followed more recently by modifications to the Foreign Business Act which limited the total foreign control of business to 49% and excluded foreigners from having a majority voting right. Thai officials say that this should be positively looked at as it clarifies a previously vague law and seeks to eliminate those who do not follow the current regulations, but was widely looked at as the beginning of a trend.

Finally and most recently was a political row with Singapore over the movements and actions of former Prime Minister Thaksin. After the coup, the government allowed Thaksin to keep his diplomatic passport. Most former heads of state are allowed that courtesy and in an attempt to normalize relations between the former government supporters and the interim government this courtesy was extended to Thaksin. Thaksin used this to his advantage and traveled extensively in Singapore, China and Hong Kong and each one of his trips was widely reported in the Thai media. Most recently in a trip to Singapore Thaksin met with the deputy prime minister, who is also a close friend, and met with CNN for an interview in which he defended himself and criticized the current government. The Thai government was outraged at the idea of this deposed former government official meeting with a member of the Singaporean government and appearing on CNN and demanded an apology and explanation. After receiving a less than satisfactory response, they cancelled Singapore’s foreign minister visit scheduled for later this month. The governments exchanged words and demands and recently the situation has quieted down. But it has strained relations between the two countries and brought negative international attention to Thailand in a time where the Thai government needs to assure the international community that they are in control. The Thai government suspended Thaksin’s diplomatic passport and during his most recent trip to Japan the Japanese government extended him no formal welcome in an effort to accommodate the Thai government and not strain their diplomatic relations. Again, the government was shown to be ineffective and caught between themselves and their desire to create unity. It’s that rock and a hard place again. They can’t be more stringent than they are without drawing criticism and they can’t be more lenient because it won’t create progress and reconciliation that everyone wants.

So, there is my little political commentary and political analysis on the situation out here. I have left many things out, including many of the recent developments in creating a new constitution and a legislative assembly. I guess the take home message from all of this is that Thai politics are interesting. In some ways they are similar to American politics, but in many ways they are drastically different. It has been very interesting to follow and I will continue to do so and I hope to keep you up to speed as things happen. But if you have any questions, as always, please ask. For additional information, check out www.bangkokpost.com.

RM